Software multiples have spent three years coming down. Our July 2026 report separates what was done to software as an asset class (interest rates, a reversion from the 2021 peak, a riskier macro backdrop) from the part a company can actually manage: its AI defensibility. It then sets out how buyers price that defensibility, which buyers pay for what, and how an owner should decide whether to invest, hold, or sell.

Five findings

• Defensibility is now the question behind every valuation. The numbers show what a business earns today; buyers are pricing how much of that they believe will last.

• Growth and customer loyalty still drive value most. Buyers pay a premium for customers who stay and spend more over time, because that is the clearest proof the business will hold up.

• What a healthy business looks like is starting to depend on the business model. A product built around AI can carry different economics, as long as the company can show they work.

• Different buyers value the same company differently. Which buyers are competing for a company can matter as much as the company itself.

• There is no right season to sell. What matters is whether a company’s position is getting stronger faster than the risks to it.

What’s inside

The report walks through why software values fell, how buyers now judge whether a company’s performance will last, what still drives value and what AI changes, which buyers pay for what, and how to decide when to sell. It closes with a case study and a short diagnostic owners can work through themselves.

A shorter reference is drawn from this report: the B2B Software Valuation Guide, which collects the valuation drivers in one place.